2020-02-12: Epidemic Mitigation Time Forecast (Covid-19)

Time trends and model predictions of confirmed cases across the country

Our model shows that the national epidemic situation will ease on 02-24 (the number of confirmed cases will not increase significantly). On 2020-02-14 there will be 931 new confirmed cases and in total 45781 confirmed cases.

National Epidemic Time Series

Date	Total Conf.	Crnt Conf.	Crnt Susp.	Crnt Sevr.	Total Death.	Total Cured	Total Conf.+Susp.	Incrs Conf.	Incrs Susp.	Incrs Susp.+Conf.	Ratio D/C	Obs.
02-13	63851	55748	10109	10204	1380	6723	73960	5090	2450	7540	2.15	177984
02-12	59804	52526	13435	8030	1367	5911	73239	15152	2807	17959	2.29	181386
02-11	44653	38800	16067	8204	1113	4740	60720	2015	3342	5357	2.49	185037
02-10	42638	37626	21675	7333	1016	3996	64313	2478	3536	6014	2.38	187728
02-09	40171	35982	23589	6484	908	3281	63760	3062	4008	7070	2.26	187518
02-08	37198	33738	28942	6188	811	2649	66140	2656	3916	6572	2.18	188183
02-07	34546	31774	27657	6101	722	2050	62203	3399	4214	7613	2.09	189660
02-06	31161	28985	26359	4821	636	1540	57520	3143	4833	7976	2.04	186045
02-05	28018	NA	24702	3859	563	1153	52720	3694	5328	9022	2.01	186354
02-04	24324	NA	23260	3219	490	892	47584	3887	3971	7858	2.01	185555
02-03	20438	NA	23214	2788	425	632	43652	3235	5072	8307	2.08	171329
02-02	17205	NA	21558	2296	361	475	38763	2829	5173	8002	2.10	152700
02-01	14380	NA	19544	2110	304	328	33924	2590	4562	7152	2.11	137594
01-31	11791	NA	17988	1795	259	243	29779	2102	5019	7121	2.20	118478
01-30	9692	NA	15238	1527	213	171	24930	1982	4812	6794	2.20	102427
01-29	7711	NA	12167	1370	170	124	19878	1737	4148	5885	2.20	81947
01-28	5974	NA	9239	1239	132	103	15213	1459	3248	4707	2.21	59990
01-27	4515	NA	6973	976	106	60	11488	1771	2077	3848	2.35	44132
01-26	2744	NA	5794	461	80	51	8538	769	3806	4575	2.92	30453
01-25	1975	NA	2684	324	56	49	4659	688	1309	1997	2.84	21556
01-24	1287	NA	1965	237	41	38	3252	444	1118	1562	3.19	13967
01-23	830	NA	1072	177	25	34	1902	259	680	939	3.01	8420
01-22	571	NA	393	95	17	49	964	131	257	388	2.98	4928
01-21	440	NA	37	102	9	28	477	149	26	175	2.05	1394
01-20	291	NA	54	NA	6	25	345	77	27	104	2.06	922

2020-02-12 Epidemic forecast by province

[Area]	[Area_cn]	[Epidemic Mitigation Time]	[2020-02-14 Prdctd daily incrs conf.]	[2020-02-14 Prdctd conf. in total]
Hubei	湖北	02-21	722	34401
Anhui	安徽	02-19	17	883
Henan	河南	02-17	13	1123
Jiangxi	江西	02-18	11	797
Shandong	山东	02-18	10	492
Guangdong	广东	02-15	9	1193
Hunan	湖南	02-15	8	902
Heilongjiang	黑龙江	02-22	8	370
Hebei	河北	02-20	7	244
Jiangsu	江苏	02-16	7	513
Guizhou	贵州	02-24	5	120
Beijing	北京	02-15	5	353
Hainan	海南	02-19	4	150
Guangxi	广西	02-16	3	210
Shanxi	山西	02-16	2	121
Tianjin	天津	02-18	2	104
Xinjiang	新疆	02-20	2	53
Jilin	吉林	02-20	1	83
Neimenggu	内蒙古	02-16	1	60
Chongqing	重庆	02-13	0	488
Gansu	甘肃	02-13	0	85
Fujian	福建	02-12	0	260
Zhejiang	浙江	02-13	0	1101
Liaoning	辽宁	02-12	0	111
Sichuan	四川	02-14	0	408
Qinghai	青海	02-09	0	16
Ningxia	宁夏	02-14	0	49
Yunnan	云南	02-10	0	145
Shanghai	上海	02-12	0	304
Shaanxi	陕西	02-13	0	220
Taiwan	台湾	02-12	0	14
Macau	澳门	01-30	0	8

Hubei:

Hebei:

Chongqing:

Shanxi:

Tianjin:

Guangxi:

Gansu:

Hainan:

Guangdong:

Henan:

Jiangxi:

Fujian:

Guizhou:

Zhejiang:

Hunan:

Liaoning:

Shandong:

Sichuan:

Heilongjiang:

Qinghai:

Ningxia:

Hong Kong:

Anhui:

Yunnan:

Xinjiang:

Jiangsu:

Jilin:

Shanghai:

Shaanxi:

Beijing:

Neimenggu:

Taiwan:

Macau:

Xizang:

This model prediction is provided by Dr. Yi Zou.